The oddsmakers and gamblers disagree a little on how the Warriors will fare without Klay Thompson this season, but neither appear confident Golden State will be much more than an average team.
The Warriors are slightly favored to make the Western Conference playoffs, according to SportsBetting.com’s -200 odds, but the under bet on Golden State’s over/under win total of 38.5 is the heaviest bet so far among gamblers on the prop.
Remember when the Warriors used to reach 38 victories by mid-January?
For the upcoming 72-game season, the Warriors’ predicted 38.5 wins is equivalent to finishing five games over .500. Aside from last season’s disaster, that finish would be the Warriors’ worst since they won 23 games in Mark Jackson’s first year as their coach in 2011-12.
Caesars is even a bit more down on the Warriors this season, installing their over/under at 37.5 wins.
The betting line on the Warriors finishing with the most victories in the league this year is also strictly middle-of-the-pack material — they’re tied with the Hawks and Pelicans for the 14th-best odds at a longshot +25000.
If you want a more optimistic view, SportsBetting.com does have the Warriors with the seventh-best title odds. Their +2000 NBA title odds, though, are tied with the Nuggets and 76ers, far behind the favored Lakers (+280), Nets (+525), Clippers (+600) and Bucks (+600).
The return of Stephen Curry does restore some normalcy for oddsmakers, who have the Warriors’ star among the top preseason MVP candidates. Curry’s MVP odds of +500 slightly trail those of the favorites, the Mavericks’ Luka Doncic (+400) and the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo (+450).
The second-most popular bet so far on the MVP award has been on Curry, with 18 percent of the bets going to the two-time MVP. Doncic is receiving 27 percent of the prop’s action.
The odds also tell us the days of multiple Warriors players making the All-Star team will probably have to wait at least another year. Draymond Green (+750) and Andrew Wiggins (+2000) are among the longer shots to become All-Stars this season among those listed.
Because more of the Warriors’ scoring load will fall on Curry’s shoulders with Thompson out for the season, his odds of winning the scoring title for the second time have improved. Curry, though, trails favorite James Harden (+150) as well as Doncic (+600) and Lillard (+700).
The bettors are also believing the hype for Warriors top pick James Wiseman, who at +500 trails only Charlotte’s LaMelo Ball (+400) in the Rookie of the Year race, according to the oddsmakers.
One of the toughest races to call in the preseason to predict is who’ll win Coach of the Year honors. The oddsmakers have Warriors coach Steve Kerr and former Warriors executive and Santa Clars star Steve Nash as the co-favorites to win the award.