Vardy Leads EPL with 19 Goals Ahead of Restart; Favored at +225 Odds to Win Golden Boot

Jamie Vardy goal celebration

Jamie Vardy is the current favorite to win the Golden Boot, but is he the best bet? Photo from @FOXFOOTBALL (Twitter).
  • On June 17, the English Premier League returns to action after a two month hiatus in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
  • With nine games left in the campaign for most teams, there is still plenty of time for the Golden Boot award to be won by an underdog.
  • The current favorite to win the Golden Boot is Jamie Vardy – read below to see if he’s the best bet

This year’s Premier League Golden Boot race is far from normal for Jamie Vardy and the rest of the goal-scoring leaders in England. In fact, the whole season has been quite peculiar. From a suspension of play, to one team having a 25-point lead atop the table, to Jose Mourinho making an astonishing move back to London — these are all reasons why you should expect just as a peculiar finish to this year’s Golden Boot race.

The Premier League Golden Boot odds favor Leicester’s number nine, Jamie Vardy, to win the award with 19 goals this season. The catch is that six players below Vardy are all within five goals of him. All it takes is a simple hat-trick or goal drought for this list to drastically change, which is why you should not expect Jamie Vardy to be running away with this award.

Premier League Golden Boot Odds

Player Odds
Jamie Vardy +225
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang +350
Mo Salah +500
Sergio Aguero +500
Sadio Mane +1200
Marcus Rashford +1400
Harry Kane +1600
Danny Ings +2000
Tammy Abraham +2500
Dominic Calvert-Lewin +3300

Odds taken on 6/12/2020.

Don’t Expect Liverpool or Man City Player to Win

At first glance, this statement sounds absurd, but do not expect a player from one of the two league leaders to win the Golden Boot award. Liverpool are only two games away from Premier League glory and Manchester City have a 12-point lead on fifth place. This lead makes it quite possible they secure Champions League play if they are found to be eligible due to their Financial Fair Play allegations that are ongoing.

While Mo Salah has lifted the award the past two years — including a share of the award with teammate Sadio Mane last season — it does not make sense for him to win in 2020.

Once Liverpool clinch the trophy, youngsters and newcomers like Takumi Minamino, Harvey Elliot and Curtis Jones are going to take up a serious amount of minutes for the Reds. The same thing will happen with Manchester City. A massive squad rotation will not allow players like Sergio Aguero to even have a chance at winning this year.

Aubameyang Could Win Back-to-Back

Last year, the trophy was shared three ways, as Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored 22 goals and lifted the Golden Boot jointly with Salah and Mane. This year, with 17 goals already, he has a legitimate chance to win the award outright for the second straight season.

While Vardy has two more goals than the former Dortmund forward, Arsenal plays only two sides in the current top six the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Leicester has to play Chelsea, Everton, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United.

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This difference in difficulty could make all the difference for the Gabonese striker. We all know Aubameyang as sort of a goal poacher against weaker sides, and in the run-in to the end of the season he will play Brighton, Southampton, Norwich and Aston Villa.

The schedule itself is essentially asking Aubameyang to take home the award. Not to mention that Aubameyang has been flirting with leaving the Gunners all season. A solid end to the campaign and another individual award could spell more contract dollars for the 30-year-old.

Best Bet

The best bet for this future is Aubameyang at +350 odds. The value of this bet is tremendous, and it is frankly the most likely to actually take place. We have seen the Golden Boot won on the last day of a season and we know how volatile the list can be at times.

Vardy has the lead right now, but we have seen him bottle it before to Harry Kane. In addition, Leicester get goals from all over the pitch, whereas Arsenal truly rely on their striker up top. With that being said, there is not much standing in place of Aubameyang bridging a two-goal gap and winning the award for the second straight year.

The Pick: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (+350)

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