Odds to Lead the NFL in Passing, Rushing, and Receiving Yards with 4 Games Left

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes signaling to his teammates

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is heavily favored to lead the NFL in passing yards with four games to go. (Photo by Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire)
  • With a month to go in the NFL season, FanDuel is offering odds on who will lead the NFL in major offensive categories
  • Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the -330 favorite to lead the league in passing
  • Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry is the -250 chalk to top the league in rushing for the second straight season

There are just four games left on the schedule for every NFL team. With that in mind, FanDuel has established betting markets on who will lead the league in three major offensive categories – passing yardage, rushing yardage and receiving yardage.

Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans is the -250 favorite to be the NFL rushing leader, just as he was in 2019. However, the sportsbook is leaning toward first-time winners in both the passing and receiving categories.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is the -330 chalk to be the passing yardage champion. As for receiving yards, DK Metcalf of the Seattle Seahawks is being pegged as the +350 betting choice.

Odds to Lead NFL in Passing Yardage

Player (Team) Odds
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) -330
Deshaun Watson (Texans) +700
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) +850
Josh Allen (Bills) +1300
Matt Ryan (Falcons) +1700

Odds as of Dec. 9th at FanDuel.

Mahomes Comes To Pass

In 2018, Mahomes was the NFL MVP. He threw for 5,097 yards, placing Mahomes second to Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers (5,129).

Last season, Mahomes missed two games through injury and finished up 18th in passing yardage. He’s proven to be a rarity in 2020, because Mahomes is something that’s getting better this year.

At 3,815 yard for the season, the Chiefs quarterback currently holds a 273-yard advantage over his closest pursuer, Deshaun Watson of the Houston Texans. Mahomes would basically need to miss a game in order to give Watson the opportunity to overcome his lead.

Kansas City and Pittsburgh are both 11-1 and racing to gain home-field advantage in the AFC. It’s unlikely that Mahomes will get a chance to sit out a game. He’s not thrown for fewer than 200 yards in a game this season. Over the past five games, Mahomes is averaging 383.2 yards through the air.

2020 NFL Passing Yardage Leaders

Player (Team) Yards Yards Per Game
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) 3815 317.9
Deshaun Watson (Texans) 3542 295.2
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) 3479 289.8
Matt Ryan (Falcons) 3486 286.3
Josh Allen (Bills) 3403 283.6

In his remaining games, Mahomes faces both the fourth (New Orleans Saints) and fifth (Los Angeles Chargers) best pass defenses in the NFL. He also gets a chance to throw against the Miami Dolphins (15th) and Atlanta Falcons (30th).

Entering the season, Mahomes was the +600 second betting choice to be the NFL passing yardage leader. Drew Brees of the Saints, currently out with a rib injury, was the +500 chalk.

Pick: Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) -330

2020 NFL MVP Odds Tracker

Odds to Lead NFL in Rushing Yardage

Player (Team) Odds
Derrick Henry (Titans) -225
Dalvin Cook (Vikings) +150
James Robinson (Jaguars) +3300
Nick Chubb (Browns) +8000
Ronald Jones II (Buccaneers) +10000

Odds taken Dec. 9th from DraftKings.

Henry’s Time Of Year

Santa Claus and Henry have a lot in common, because December is their time of year to shine. At this time of year, the Titans running back is the gift that keeps on gaining yardage. Henry has gone over 100 yards in four of his last six games.

In 2019, after 11 weeks of the NFL season, Henry was eighth in the league’s rushing race. He propelled himself to the title by topping the 100-yard plateau in five of his last six games. Henry rushed for 895 yards over that six-game span.

This season, Henry came into December as the front runner. He holds a 67-yard lead over Dalvin Cook of the Minnesota Vikings.

2020 NFL Rushing Yardage Leaders

Player (Team) Yards Yards Per Game
Derrick Henry (Titans) 1,317 109.8
Dalvin Cook (Vikings) 1,250 113.6
James Robinson (Jaguars) 968 80.7
Ronald Jones II (Buccaneers) 820 68.3
Nick Chubb (Browns) 799 99.9

Over the last month of the season, Henry lines up against the 31st (Houston), 30th (Jacksonville Jaguars), 28th (Detroit Lions) and 14th (Green Bay Packers) NFL run defenses.

Everything points to Henry becoming the NFL’s first back-to-back rushing champ since LaDainian Tomlinson of the Chargers in 2006-07. He was the +600 favorite to do exactly that at the outset of the season.

Pick: Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans) -225

Odds to Lead NFL in Receiving Yardage

Player (Team) Odds
DK Metcalf (Seahawks) +350
Tyreek Hill (Chiefs) +380
Stefon Diggs (Bills) +550
Travis Kelce (Chiefs) +550
DeAndre Hopkins (Cardinals) +600

Odds as of Dec. 9th from FanDuel.

A Wide Open Race

Is it better to give than receive? Not if your a wideout seeking to lead the NFL in receiving yardage.

Of the three categories analyzed here, this is clearly the closest race. It’s easy to make a case that any of the top seven in the current standings could emerge the winner.

Metcalf holds a mere five-yard lead over Kansas City’s Travis Kelce. Tyreek Hill, Kelce’s teammate, is 40 yards behind Metcalf.

Metcalf finishes tough. Seattle faces the NFL’s #1 (Los Angeles Rams), #3 (Washington Football Team) and #10 (San Francisco 49ers) pass defenses over the final four games.

2020 NFL Receiving Yardage Leaders

Player (Team) Yards Yards Per Game
DK Metcalf (Seahawks) 1,119 93.3
Travis Kelce (Chiefs) 1,114 92.8
Tyreek Hill (Chiefs) 1,079 89.9
Stefon Diggs (Bills) 1,037 86.4
Justin Jefferson (Vikings) 1,039 86.6

Seeking to become the first tight end to lead the NFL in pass reception yardage, Kelce holds the added advantage of having Mahomes, the top passing QB, connecting with him.

New Orleans wideout Michael Thomas was the preseason +600 chalk to lead this category. Limited to six games this season, he’s 97th overall with 354 yards.

Pick: Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) +550

Latest posts