Notre Dame vs Miami Odds and Picks

Kameron McGusty spinning past defender

Miami’s Kameron McGusty (23) spins around Notre Dame’s Temple ‘T.J.’ Gibbs during an NCAA college basketball game Sunday, Feb. 23, 2020, in South Bend, Ind. Notre Dame won 87-71. (AP Photo/Robert Franklin)
  • Notre Dame (4-8, 1-5 ACC) battles Miami (6-7, 2-6 ACC) on Sunday, Jan. 24, at 6pm ET
  • The Fighting Irish have had a week off since their last game, which happened to be their first win since before Christmas
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

Notre Dame’s victories are few and, quite literally, far between this season. The Fighting Irish won their last time out, on Jan. 16, for their first victory since Dec. 23. In what has been a very underwhelming season so far, Notre Dame will try for its first instance of consecutive wins during Sunday’s matchup with Miami (FL) at 6pm ET.

Here’s a look at the odds for this ACC battle.

Miami (FL) vs Notre Dame Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Miami (FL) -136 -2.5 (-104) Over 142.5 (-106)
Notre Dame +116 +2.5 (-118) Under 142.5 (-114)

Odds as of Jan. 23rd, 2020 at FanDuel.

How They’ve Fared Recently

The Fighting Irish have not been impressive by practically any metric this season. Their four wins are against opponents with a combined record of 16-32, and they are 0-8 against teams ranked inside KenPom’s top 50.

That’s the problem, though. They’ve beaten all their weaker opponents and lost to all of the stronger ones. So after a four-game losing skid against #13 Virginia (twice), Virginia Tech and North Carolina, the Fighting Irish must’ve been relieved to see the 3-9 Boston College Eagles come to town last weekend.

Notre Dame won that one, 80-70, which could give the team a boost heading into Sunday. Apropos of nothing, there’s actually one thing Notre Dame does better than any team in NCAA Division I: only 18.5% of opponent shots come from the free throw line, which is the lowest in the country.

Unlike Notre Dame, Miami has strung together multiple wins this season — they just haven’t done so since early December. Of late, the Hurricanes have been up and down, with two wins in their past four.

Their best win might’ve been last Saturday, a 78-72 victory at home over Louisville (38th in KenPom’s rankings). Then again, that was on the heels of their worst loss: a 22-point defeat against Boston College.

The Hurricanes are a dreadful deep-shooting team (26.9% from 3-point range, 337th in NCAA D-I). As with the Fighting Irish, they also don’t allow many free throws (21.5% of opponent shots; fifth in NCAA D-I). It’s difficult to tell who that benefits.

ATS Analysis

Notre Dame is 4-8 against the spread, with just two ATS wins in their past eight games. They did cover their last time out, though, as five-point favorites against Boston College. The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in recent matchups as the underdog.

Miami is 7-6 ATS, but they’ve lost two of their past three. Being the favorite is not familiar territory for the Hurricanes, as they’ve been the underdog in seven of their past 10 games. They have three consecutive ATS losses as the favorite.

Head-to-Head Matchup

These teams have faced off just twice in the past two seasons, splitting the ATS and straight up results (with the favorite winning/covering in both instances).

In last season’s lone matchup, on Feb. 23, 2020, Notre Dame won 87-71 to cover as seven-point favorites. The issue, though, is that Notre Dame has only returned one starter from last year’s senior-laden group. Clearly there have been some continuity challenges this year, as a face-lifted starting five works through some growing pains.

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Neither of these teams has been very good, but Miami has more impressive wins and has more of its 2020 unit still around to help the Hurricanes get into sync. We like them to pick up a win Sunday.

Pick: Miami -2.5 (-104)

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