2021 NHL Hart Trophy Odds: Connor McDavid Favored Over Nathan MacKinnon

  • Go to Bovada for the latest Hart Trophy odds and other NHL award futures for the Norris, Vezina and Calder
  • Oilers captain Connor McDavid (+450) is a slight favorite over Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon (+550)
  • Lightning center and 2020 Stanley Cup champion Brayden Point is a strong value at +2200

Leon Draisaitl still isn’t getting any respect from oddmakers. After pacing the NHL with 110 points last season and winning his first-career Hart Trophy, the 25-year-old German is only +1200 to repeat as the league’s most valuable player.

How could this be? Let’s take a look at the latest odds to see what three stars are favored ahead of him and make our best bet on who will take home the award.

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When Connor McDavid (+450) was awarded the 2016-17 Hart Trophy following his sophomore season, most hockey pundits would’ve expected the Oilers forward to rack up another one by now. However, lack-luster team performance and magical seasons by Taylor Hall (2018), Nikita Kucherov (2019) and teammate Leon Draisaitl (2020) have kept his trophy case on the lighter side.

Somehow already entering his sixth season, the soon-to-be 24-year-old has improved his points-per-game output every year he’s been in the league, from 1.03 in his rookie campaign, to 1.22 in his MVP year, to 1.32, to 1.49, to 1.52 in 2019-20.

Aided by a NHL-high 67 assists, Draisaitl actually edged McDavid with 1.55 points-per-game last year. He also suited up in seven more games after a quad injury sidelined McDavid last February, giving him the breathing room he needed in the Hart Trophy race.

While the big German is the clear value at +1200, we prefer the phenom from Richmond Hill, Ontario who is still ascending and could be in for a career-best season. A generational talent, McDavid has recorded 324 even-strength points in his first five seasons and his 0.92 points per game mark tops Crosby’s 0.78 average over his first five years.

Connor McDavidto win Hart Trophy
Leon Draisaitlto win Hart Trophy


A Hart Trophy finalist in each of the past three seasons, Nathan MacKinnon (+550) put up a career-best 1.35 points-per-game while leading an injury-riddled Avalanche club to second place in the Western Conference. The 25-year-old center was Colorado’s leading scorer by a whopping 43 points in 2019-20, and while a healthy season from teammate Mikko Rantanen will help close that gap this year, he shouldn’t have to worry about vote-splitting like the two Edmonton stars.

Team performance also factors into Hart voting most years. And while MacKinnon’s Avs are the betting favorites to win the Stanley Cup, the Oilers have missed the playoffs in four of McDavid’s five seasons.

Looking for a longshot? How about the Lightning’s Brayden Point (+2200)? The 24-year-old center tallied 33 points in 23 postseason games while toughing out a lower-body injury during Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup run. He also had 92 points (41 goals, 51 assists) in 79 games in 2018-19, so we know he can put up big numbers.

Point would likely need his teammate Nikita Kucherov (+1400) to miss time with injury in order to claim the award, but last year’s Conn Smythe runner up has the talent, strong team and all-around game it takes to win a Hart Trophy.

Nathan MacKinnonto win Hart Trophy
Brayden Pointto win Hart Trophy

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